I can already see the smirks and grin at the title of this article. Come on, Chuck T., you love it when the Spencer Strider investments pay off. And yes, it is fantasy baseball nirvana when that happens. But here is the unblemished reality. Stocking up on young pitchers will bring you more aggravation than it is worth. And it just isn’t a bankable strategy for long term success. Take some recent conversations that I have had with my peers in the industry and we can hopefully, use these viewpoints to improve our strategies.
My first conversation was with a veteran player who told me he had just given up on Patrick Sandoval in his dynasty league. He went on to share with me that Sandoval has never really been a solid contributor in the WHIP categories. So I looked at some career stats on Sandoval and discovered he has had a career WHIP of 1.30, a number that is a little high. I do own Sandoval in one of my dynasty leagues and I had not experienced inflated WHIP numbers. And sure enough I see that Sandoval produced a 1.21 WHIP in the 2021 season and in the current season his WHIP is at 1.24. These are acceptable numbers from a 26 year old starting pitcher that shut down Japan in the World Baseball Classic through 5 innings this March.
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I got into a conversation with a fellow owner in one of my dynasty leagues that his investments in Brandon Pfaadt and Matthew Liberatore didn’t look like they were going to pan out. Now the current ERA on Pfaadt is 8.37 and the WHIP is 1.65 and a few more appearances are going to poison his team’s ERA and WHIP numbers. But I focused on his sentiments that these investments have set back his team. This was the same owner that had the good fortune of drafting Spencer Strider the season prior. This guy is playing with house money certainly. It isn’t necessary for him to hit the jackpot on every young prospect. But you have to be ready to pull the plug quickly when a Pfaadt blows up. Which brings us to Michael Kopech.
Somehow a lightbulb went off for Michael Kopech in May because his last 2 starts have been dominant. 15 shutout innings, 3 hits allowed, 19 strikeouts and just 1 walk allowed in his last 2 wins. Kopech is 27 years old and his triple digit fastball is legendary. But what catches my eye about Kopech is that despite surrendering a lot of walks in April and early May, his WHIP stands at 1.22 currently. You run and don’t walk to obtain his brand of dominance. He is only owned in 30% of ESPN leagues, though that figure is rising rapidly.
Another owner in my favorite dynasty league shared some pearls of wisdom with me after Hunter Greene threw 6 no-hit innings on his way to 11 strikeouts with 2 walks. He had hit the 110 pitch mark and was pulled at such a high pitch count. Greene expended an average of 6.11 pitches in order to record his 18 outs and this will limit his ability to compile quality starts and wins. And while his 80 strikeouts at the 1/3 mark of the season has him on pace for 240 strikeouts it is only one category. My fellow owner feels this makes Greene a sell high candidate, and I don’t disagree with the sentiment. I have always felt that his 2-pitch repertoire makes him a better candidate for the bullpen. I won’t be buying when he is offered for sale as a starting pitcher but I might make a discounted offer for him as a relief pitcher.