Is the Baseball Draft Relevant for Fantasy?

Fantasy baseball publications love to expend ink and readership on the Baseball Draft every summer. Unlike the NBA and NFL drafts however, there is very little predictive value of how good the best prospects will turn out. This doesn’t mean that you should ignore the excellent draft issue that Baseball America puts together every year, There are ways to read the issue. There are things to look for each year in the coverage. And there are a few nuggets of information I am going to share with you from this year’s draft class that can help you in both dynasty formats and in redraft formats. So let’s talk about a guy named Brien Taylor.

Brien Taylor was an early 90’s draft pick made by the NY Yankees and he was the #2 pick in the draft. He threw a 98 mph fastball from the left side in a period when the hardest throwers threw 95 mph and were all right handed. Taylor had an electric repertoire and was supposed to make it to Yankee Stadium quickly. And in a flash, thanks to an off the field incident involving a senseless fight, Taylor experienced a shoulder injury and it ended his career. The Yankees had nothing to show for their #2 pick overall and yet the Yankees won 4 World Series titles in 5 years from 1996 to 2000. The lesson? Learn the multiple paths that major league baseball teams use to acquire talent. No one single draft pick holds a huge sway over a team’s future fortunes as many 7th round draft picks play in the All Star game every summer as 1st round picks play.

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But I mentioned up above that there are things that can be learned from each draft class. And one of the most reliable things to look for is the collegiate player that earns the tag that they are the closest to the major leagues. In 2023, LSU’s right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes has been dubbed best pitcher and closest to the major leagues in a decade or more. This type of praise is frequently reliable. Skenes is universally praised by scouts and is thought to have a very close to ready for the majors arsenal of pitches. The distinguishment between the best college bat and the best high school bat is also a fairly important one. The 2022 best high school bat was deemed to be second baseman Termarr Johnson. Almost from the time that a proclamation such as this is made it is inaccurate. Jackson Holliday was selected out of high school in the 2022 draft and he is far ahead of Termarr Johnson. Holliday is hitting .331 and has already advanced to High Class A baseball. Termarr Johnson is hitting .227 year to date in Low Class A and has to be considered pretty far behind Jackson Holliday.

Now this is a situation that is not permanent. It is entirely possible for Johnson to go on a year and be better in 2024. But we see this frequently that the tag most advanced high school hitters present will turn out to be inaccurate and misleading. And of course this just comes with the territory when you consider high school players. They have a considerable amount of development ahead of them. College players are further along on the development pipeline. I would consider Skenes’ LSU teammate Dylan Crews to be a reasonable player to invest in. His makeup is said to be off the charts and he has ample power and speed. And while Florida’s Wyatt Langford has settled in comfortably as the #3 prospect of this draft, some scouts have written that high schooler Walker Jenkins would be a #1 overall pick in almost any other draft class than this one. So Chuck T., how do I position myself for this draft?

My simple answer is that you don’t. What? All these great young prospects. Surely I have to draft one or I will miss the party. Well, that just isn’t the case. There are quite a few players from the 2022 draft on the minor league rosters of my dynasty league. Termarr Johnson included. Elijiah Green also. Ditto for Druw Jones, Hall of Famer Andruw Jones’ son. Nobody took Jackson Holliday last year and if you ask me, he is the prize from last year’s draft. Holliday was selected this spring in my Dynasty League’s Spring 2023 draft. That was perfect timing. It also is a fairly reliable indicator that Jackson’s father was Matt Holliday, one hell of a hitter.

In short, take a wait and see approach on this year’s draft. Some of these guys will be drafted in fantasy and dropped and not appear in MLB games until eight years from now. Let this process evolve on its own.