Presidential election tickets have traditionally focused on building coalitions within parties to appeal to moderates and swing voters.
For example, in 2016, President Trump chose then-Indiana Governor Mike Pence to appease the establishment wing and evangelical base of the GOP.
In the 2020 presidential election, President Biden selected Kamala Harris to boost his support with the progressive wing of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and black voters, who might have taken issue with some of his past statements, such as referring to black men on the streets as “predators” when debating his 1993 crime bill in the U.S. Senate.
This year, precedent has been abandoned in favor of doubling down on the electoral base. I've dubbed this election the MAGA squared vs. WOKE squared election.
President Donald Trump conducted a long-drawn-out audition for his VP slot, ultimately choosing freshman Ohio Senator JD Vance, one of the loudest voices for Trump in the U.S. Senate.
On the flip side, VP Harris quickly decided to pick Tim Walz for the VP slot. Walz, a former member of Congress and current Governor of Minnesota is a self-proclaimed progressive wrapped in a Midwestern accent and blue-collar facade.
To understand the strategies behind these choices, let's unpack the VP candidates. It was widely expected that Harris would pick Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro due to his incredible popularity in the state and his appeal to moderates.
However, speculation suggests that his religious background became a stumbling block due to the growing pushback Democrats are facing within their ranks because of the Israel vs. Hamas war in Gaza since October 7th, 2023.
This forced Harris to go with the alternative: Gov. Tim Walz. Although Walz is a self-proclaimed progressive with a voting record that would make Sen. Bernie Sanders proud, he is now being repackaged as a blue-collar Midwesterner who can relate to the Rust Belt states.
This sets up a perfect storm to clash with Trump’s VP pick, Ohio Senator JD Vance. While Walz might not be the addition most Democrats and donors wanted, he is energizing the progressive wing of the party and galvanizing their ground game.
The Trump campaign needed to find a way to be competitive in the Rust Belt states, making Ohio Senator JD Vance a necessity. The Trump camp has several goals, and Vance seems to satisfy many of them, starting with his appeal to Midwestern and youthful voters. Moreover, as the author of the New York Times best-selling book "Hillbilly Elegy" and the subject of a Netflix blockbuster of the same title, Vance has become a mini-Trump in D.C. politics. He has drawn intense support from younger GOP voters and grassroots activists across the country. The Trump-Vance ticket might not appeal to the entire GOP spectrum, but it has created energy to activate the party's base.
With both sides making redundant picks, there's little room left for moderation. I believe this will lead to a historically tight presidential campaign, likely decided in six to seven states and among 150,000 to 200,000 voters in those states. When politicians focus on their bases, one-third of the country is largely ignored by their messaging, making this a tight margin election.
As the presidential race becomes more contentious, attention is shifting to House and Senate races, with some arguing that the Senate is at risk for Democrats, potentially leading to a ten-year GOP hold.
Look no further than the state of Ohio, where more than $310 million has already been spent on the U.S. Senate race pitting political outsider and business owner Bernie Moreno vs. career politician Sherrod Brown, who entered political office when Richard Nixon lived in the White House.
This is crucial because if Trump wins reelection, there's enough evidence to suggest that there will be two retirements in the U.S. Supreme Court, allowing Trump to appoint two younger, more conservative Justices with the full support of the U.S. Senate. On the flip side,
GOP control of the Senate under a Harris presidency could severely block her agenda and force her to moderate her positions.
It should come as no surprise that the American people have a lot of homework to do before heading to the polls this November. How does one cut through the millions of dollars poured into messaging via TV, social media, and print ads? I always say it never hurts to do it the old-fashioned way: do your own research. It can be enlightening and helpful in making that decision come Election Day—or, more accurately, Election Season, with all the early voting options available.
Ultimately, this election will be remembered as one of the most exhausting in history, marked by a relentless focus on base politics and self aggrandizement.