With Election Day here, I wanted to share my analysis of the Congressional races on Long Island and consider their potential outcomes and implications for the power structure in the U.S. House of Representatives when the 119th Congress convenes in 2025.
Significance of the Long Island Seats
The four congressional seats on Long Island will play a key role in determining the balance of power in the House of Representatives. Shifts in these seats could have a significant impact on the control of Congress, influencing legislative priorities and shaping the national agenda. Here’s a closer look at each of these seats, along with insights into the dynamics of the races.
NY-01: Rep. Nick LaLota (Republican)
Incumbent freshman Rep. Nick LaLota, who succeeded former Congressman Lee Zeldin, faces a challenging re-election campaign against former CNN anchor John Avlon. Although NY-01 has historically leaned Republican, recent polls show LaLota holding only a narrow 3-point lead. Democrats hope to recapture this seat, previously held by Tim Bishop, a prominent Democratic figure; however, the odds remain slim, with the seat likely to stay in Republican hands. Nonetheless, the close polling margin is noteworthy given former President Trump’s strong support in this district, suggesting potential shifts in voter sentiment.
Prediction: Safe Republican hold, with slight cause for concern over the tightening race.
NY-02: Rep. Andrew Garbarino (Republican)
Rep. Andrew Garbarino is well-positioned to secure a third term. Known for his moderate voting record and steady constituent service, Garbarino has managed to avoid the divisive politics that can often endanger incumbents. His opponent’s campaign has failed to gain traction, making NY-02 a reliable hold for the GOP.
Prediction: Safe Republican hold.
NY-03: Rep. Tom Suozzi (Democrat)
Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi returned to Congress after an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2022. This district was flipped by a 16-point swing in the 2022 election cycle by yours truly. Local Republicans, however, faced setbacks in their attempt to retain the seat, leading to the selection of Michael LiPetri as their candidate through a contentious legal process smeared in law fare devising the seat of a fair primary process. With LiPetri polling nine points behind Suozzi in his own internal polls, the Democrat is likely to retain his seat, barring any late surprises.
Prediction: Safe Democratic hold.
NY-04: Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (Republican)
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s seat is highly vulnerable. D’Esposito, who won by a narrow margin in 2022, is embroiled in a scandal over alleged misuse of public funds, reportedly placing his mistress and fiancée’s daughter on his congressional payroll for no show ghost jobs. He now faces a rematch with Laura Gillen, the former Hempstead Town Supervisor. Gillen, who lost by just four points in 2022, is favored in this year’s close race, especially considering Biden's previous strong performance in the district. D’Esposito’s recent shift to a more pro-Trump stance may be a last-ditch attempt to galvanize his base, but this seat appears poised to flip blue.
Prediction: Likely Democratic flip.
Additional New York Races to Watch
Beyond Long Island, several other New York districts could have implications for the national balance of power:
- NY-17: Incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (Republican) is expected to retain his seat, contrasting his pragmatic approach with that of his radical progressive opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones.
- NY-18: Alison Esposito, former running mate of gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin, is challenging Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan. The seat’s moderate leaning makes this race competitive and Esposito seems to be taking Rep Ryan to task on this MUST hold for Democrats.
- NY-22: Republicans face a likely loss here due to incumbent Rep. Brandon Williams’ diminishing popularity and the newly tweaked district lines. It’s fair to note that former Republican Rep Katko was able to hold on to the seat even in the historic blue wave of 2018 that sweep house seats all across the country.
- NY-19: Rep. Marc Molinaro is engaged in a close rematch against radical progressive Josh Riley, backed by the Democratic Party and the extreme radical Working Families Party. Molinaro’s strong long time personal connection with voters in this area could give him the advantage in this high-stakes contest.
These races are critical for determining the makeup of the next House of Representatives. With New York poised to be a battleground, voter turnout and shifting voter sentiments will be crucial. No matter where you stand politically, one thing is clear: every vote counts, and it is essential to participate in this election. Make your voice heard—VOTE!