Long Island’s electric grid is facing increasing reliability challenges over the next several years as rising demand collides with generator retirements and delays in new power supplies, according to a newly released national reliability assessment.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment places New York, including Long Island, in an elevated risk category for electricity shortages during peak demand periods later this decade, particularly during extreme weather events.
While New York currently meets required reserve margins, NERC warns that planned retirements of aging peaking power plants could create localized shortfalls, especially in downstate regions such as Long Island that are electrically constrained and heavily dependent on transmission imports. The report specifically cites the New York Independent System Operator’s findings that retirements of peaker units could strain system adequacy if replacement resources or transmission upgrades are not completed on time.
Long Island’s vulnerability is amplified by steadily rising electricity demand driven by population density, electrification of heating and transportation, and the broader statewide push toward electric vehicles and renewable energy. At the same time, much of the new generation coming online consists of solar and battery storage, which NERC notes are weather-dependent and less reliable during extended periods of high demand, such as heat waves or winter cold snaps.
The assessment also highlights broader concerns across the Northeast Power Coordinating Council region, including New York and New England, where winter reliability remains a particular concern due to fuel supply limitations and reliance on natural gas infrastructure that can become constrained during severe cold.
NERC cautions that without accelerated development of dispatchable generation, expanded transmission capacity, or demand-side management programs, Long Island could face a higher risk of controlled outages during extreme conditions later in the decade. While no immediate crisis is projected, the report emphasizes that current planning assumptions leave little margin for error.
The watchdog organization urges state regulators and grid operators to move quickly to align power plant retirements with new capacity additions and to streamline permitting for both generation and transmission projects. For Long Island residents and businesses, the findings underscore growing questions about grid resilience as energy demand climbs amid the push by Gov. Kathy Hochul and the Progressive Democrats to eliminate fossil fuels in favor of wind and solar.