Many Long Islanders rely on weather forecasts to plan their daily lives, yet a common belief persists that meteorologists are “wrong half the time.” According to Scott Mandia, professor of Physical Sciences at Suffolk County Community College, that perception is more myth than reality.
Mandia said one of his online weather students recently repeated the familiar complaint. “Many people think the same because they only remember the few times the forecast was wrong,” Mandia explained. “But in reality, forecasts in the United States — especially in the 0-72 hour range — are generally very accurate.”
The National Weather Service, which operates a forecast office in Upton on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory, plays a central role in delivering that accuracy. The office is responsible for monitoring conditions across Long Island and issuing forecasts and warnings when severe weather threatens.
Forecasting has improved dramatically over the past few decades due to advances in technology, Mandia noted. Among the key factors:
- Improved data collection: A vast network of satellites, weather balloons, radar, and ground-based sensors provides meteorologists with an unprecedented flow of real-time data.
- More powerful computer models: Advances in computational power allow high-resolution models to simulate the atmosphere with far greater detail than in the past.
- Integration of artificial intelligence: AI and machine learning are now being used to refine forecasts, improving speed and precision.
- Human expertise: Even with cutting-edge models, Mandia stressed, the judgment of experienced meteorologists remains crucial in interpreting data and accounting for local variations.
That said, forecasting has its limits. “It’s much easier to predict temperature than the exact location of an afternoon thunderstorm,” Mandia said. Localized phenomena such as pop-up storms or rapidly shifting conditions in mountainous areas remain challenging.
Geography also plays a role. Regions with complex terrain or volatile weather patterns, like the Great Plains, tend to be more difficult to forecast than coastal zones such as Long Island, where weather systems are generally more stable.
Mandia said that while people often focus on the occasional blown forecast, the overall accuracy of modern weather prediction is “far beyond what the public gives it credit for.”
“Within the first three days, forecasts are extraordinarily reliable,” he said. “That’s a huge improvement from just a generation ago, and it continues to get better.”