The 2028 New York Senate race could deliver the kind of political spectacle that rarely makes its way to one of America’s bluest states: a bare-knuckled brawl between the leader of the Senate Democrats and the progressive insurgent who is a hero to the party’s activist base.
That’s the match many progressives are hoping for, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez potentially setting her sights on Chuck Schumer’s Senate seat. A recent poll from the left-wing firm Data for Progress shows the 35-year-old congresswoman leading Schumer among likely Democratic voters.
While the source of the poll might invite some skepticism—Data for Progress has made a name for itself pushing the Democratic Party leftward, often at the expense of Democratic incumbents—the numbers will only amplify the pressure on AOC to challenge New York’s senior senator.
Should she run, it wouldn’t be the first time Ocasio-Cortez unseated a powerful Democratic insider. In 2018, she toppled Joe Crowley, then chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and a fixture in New York Democratic politics, in a primary that served as the progressive movement’s declaration of war against the party elite.
Since then, AOC has cultivated a national following that combines social media savvy with an uncompromising, left-wing ideology. And with Schumer increasingly viewed by the progressive base as a creature of Washington’s permanent class, the ingredients for a showdown are all there.
The Working Families Party—New York’s influential left-wing fusion party—is almost certain to back AOC should she make a run for the Senate seat. Thanks to New York’s unique electoral fusion laws, the WFP’s endorsement offers more than just symbolic support: it delivers activists, ground troops, and a second ballot line.
Since it was established as a party in 1998, the WFP has served as a vehicle for progressives frustrated by Democratic moderation; in AOC, they would find a candidate capable of channeling dissatisfaction with the Democratic establishment into a full-scale rebellion.
But for all the online, progressive energy that surrounds AOC, New York Democrats have not consistently embraced progressive insurgents. Andrew Cuomo, in 2014 and again in 2018, easily fended off two far left primary challengers as governor.
And while New York City Democrats twice backed ultra-progressive Bill de Blasio for mayor, in 2021, Eric Adams won the Democratic primary for mayor by explicitly running against the party’s progressive base.
Interestingly, the current frontrunner in the 2025 Democratic mayoral primary is none other than Cuomo himself.
Since he resigned as governor in 2021, Cuomo has been a fierce critic of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. While the primary remains weeks away, New York Democratic voters appear to be charting a course away from ideological purity and toward pragmatic governance.
Still, Schumer would be a fool to take a challenge from AOC lightly. Given his long history in New York State politics, it’s unlikely that he will. Schumer was first elected to the State Assembly at 23.
After serving in Albany and then as a Member of Congress from Brooklyn, Schumer ran for the Senate in 1998. Before getting to the general election, Schumer had to face two New York Democratic giants in the primary: New York City Public Advocate Mark Green and 1984 Democratic Vice President nominee Geraldine Ferraro.
After beating Green and Ferarro, Schumer faced off against Republican incumbent Alfonse D’Amato in the general election. While Schumer beat D’Amato by a comfortable margin, the general election contest was hard fought.
Schumer hasn’t faced a serious primary or general election since that race in 1998, but that doesn’t mean his political operation has gotten rusty. During his tenure in the Senate, Schumer served as the leader of his party’s campaign committee, and any New York politico will tell you that he keeps his finger on the pulse of Empire State politics.
Should he face AOC in a primary, the political skills he has developed over fifty years in politics will certainly come in handy.
The broader risk for Democrats is that a bruising primary could fracture the party heading into a general election. Under New York’s fusion system, a defeated candidate could remain on the ballot under a third-party line, dividing the Democratic vote and giving the GOP a shot to win a Senate seat in New York.
That’s no idle concern: New York Republicans have shown unexpected strength in recent years, turning formerly competitive regions like Long Island red. In 2024, Donald Trump made historic gains across New York City’s five boroughs, and the GOP has its largest caucus in the city council in decades. Even the Democrats’ enormous statewide voter registration advantage has narrowed in recent years.
A Schumer-AOC battle would be more than a contest between generations or personalities.
It would be a referendum on the future of the Democratic Party: a choice between pragmatic centrism and ideological purity, between a party that governs and a movement that agitates.
For conservatives, the prospect of that clash will be welcomed. At the very least, it promises to expose the deep fissures within the Democrats’ coalition. At best, it could open the door for the GOP to be competitive in a race long thought to be unwinnable.Either way, a Schumer-AOC fight will be one Republicans will enjoy watching.
Joseph T Burns is an attorney with the law firm Holtzman Vogel and a highly respected New York election lawyer and political strategist.