The year was 2011. The incumbent County Comptroller won a race for Erie County Executive.
This created a daunting challenge for a Republican who wanted to win the Special Election race for Erie County Comptroller the following year in 2012.
At the time, no GOP candidate won county-wide in a Presidential election year in four decades. There’s a good reason for that.
Even-numbered years are when Presidents and Governors run for election in New York State. This is when a massive number of Democrats hit polling places.
GOP turnout is much higher in odd-numbered years when most local and some county-wide elections take place, like the Suffolk County Legislature this year in 2025. It’s much easier for Republicans to defeat Democrats in odd-numbered years.
Practically EVERYONE told me not to run in the even-numbered year buzz saw of 2012, especially with Democrat Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.
Political prognosticators told me to wait one year, let the Democrat run and win in 2012, then cruise to victory in 2013 for a full, four-year term as the Taxpayer’s Watchdog.
It angered me that folks focused on data, not yours truly as a candidate, and cast me aside as a lost GOP cause who could never win in a Democratic heavy election, led by former President Obama.
No question I was the exception to the rule.
I had spent the last 14 years on local television as an investigative reporter and news anchor. My name ID was through the roof and I didn’t have to spend much on building a political brand.
The Democrats appointed a gentleman whom I later became friends with, a combat veteran from a very small town. The race was ripe for the picking.
A total of 416,413 voters cast ballots in my race for Erie County Comptroller in 2012. The Democratic turnout was massive.
To put things in perspective, my county-wide race in 2012 was far bigger than the turnout in most Congressional Districts. In 2024, a total of 363,116 people cast ballots in the race between incumbent Congressman Andrew Garbarino and Democrat Rob Lubin.
My team and yours truly made history, earning 195,312 votes, defeating the Democratic incumbent who tallied 185,998 votes (the remaining were for other candidates, blanks, or voided on the ballot).
The thing is, the negative naysayers who warned me not to run in an even-numbered Presidential year were technically correct in their advice based solely on data and turnout models.
These “Debbie Downers” were right. Democratic turnout would plummet in 2013, GOP turnout would rise, and it would be much easier to win the next year.
After running gruelling back-to-back county-wide campaigns, the data proved them right.
A total of 184.054 voters came out in my re-election for Erie County Comptroller in 2013. That was far less than half the turnout from the even-numbered year and less than my vote total alone for 2012.
I handily won in the odd-numbered year with 98,215 votes, defeating my Democratic challenger, who earned a total of 72,966 ballots.
It is extremely rare for Republicans across New York State to win in even-numbered years.
This is why statewide Democrats, who hold majorities in the Senate and Assembly and obviously the Governor’s Mansion with Kathy Hochul, passed a law that moves most local and county elections to even years.
They did this on purpose: to hamstring Republicans, force them to run in even-numbered years, and wipe the GOP out of county and local offices.
The Court of Appeals unanimously kicked aside a legal challenge to the change, and moving forward, most town and county elections in Suffolk County and across New York State will take place in even-numbered years, when Governors and Presidents run.
This will pose a big challenge to Republicans in Suffolk County and in towns/municipalities to keep seats they currently hold and flip “purple” districts where they could pick off a vulnerable Democrat.
Instead of focusing voter outreach on maintaining roads and fixing potholes, Highway Superintendents might shift their focus to issues like securing the Southern Border, inflation, and foreign tariffs. They'll have to if they're running in even numbered Presidential years. How preposterous is that? Unforunately, that's the sad reality in the People's Republic of New York.
Thankfully for Republicans, the GOP is a well-oiled machine in Suffolk County. That GOP engine is going to have to run perfectly, smoothly, and without a single hiccup moving forward in order to win future elections.
It can happen. It did for me in 2012. It’s not impossible. Democrats just threw a massive monkey wrench into the engine called local elections, and will not stop to permanently eliminate Republican office holders in every local and county office in the Empire State.