The 2024 GOP Field Continues to Trail Trump by Double Digits

Trump continues to dominate the GOP field in the latest polls. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump leads in the New Hampshire Primary by 14 points and he is up +25 points in the Ohio Presidential Primary. In the latest Morning Consult 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination poll, Trump is up by 35 points over DeSantis and an average of about 50 points ahead of everyone else. The recent I&I/TIPP 2024 Republican Presidential Primary polling has Trump up 39 points and an average of about 50 points ahead of the rest of the GOP candidates.

Trump continued to outperform the competition in 2nd Quarter fundraising hauling in $35 million. His average donation is less than $35, showing he has strong grassroots-support among average Americans. DeSantis has struggled in this category as only 15% of his fundraising efforts come from small donors. But on top of the $20 million that DeSantis has raised, the Never Back Down PAC took in about $130 million for DeSantis, keeping him in contention for next year’s primaries.

Trump jumped in the polls during the last two indictments against him and with two more indictments on the horizon, another Trump boost is expected in the polls. People are dubious about the legitimacy of these indictments, especially among GOP and Conservative voters and that this is a tactic being used by the Dems to take out their strongest political opponent.

Mike Pence may have hurt himself in last week’s The Family Leadership Summit in Iowa when Tucker questioned him about whether we should be spending $200 per day per American in Ukraine instead of cleaning up our cities. Tucker asked Pence, “You are distressed that Ukrainians don’t have enough American tanks,” while “public filth and disorder and crime has exponentially increased,” referring to “every American city.” Pence’s response was “That is not my concern,” a phrase that will most likely haunt him with the conservative base going forward and will most certainly be used against him by the other candidates. 95.8% of attendees at this past weekend’s Turning Point Action Conference opposed U.S. involvement in Ukraine. Pence defended his response to Tucker by saying, “Anybody who says we can't be the leader of the free world and solve our problems at home has a pretty small view of the greatest nation on Earth. We can do both.” This clash with Tucker, combined with the fact that Pence raised less than $1.2 million and finished the quarter with nearly $1.1 million in the bank, according to the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, may be an ominous sign for the Pence campaign.

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One interesting dynamic is that Vivek Ramaswamy has leapfrogged Mike Pence in at least two polls that were released over the last week, giving Vivek about 8% support, higher than everyone except DeSantis. Vivek is also tied with Pence in this week’s I&I/TIPP polling, at 7% of the vote. Vivek’s message has been well received by young people and among conservative and independent voters. This is noteworthy considering he is new to the scene, relatively unknown prior to this, and like Trump has never held public office before his bid to run for the Presidency. But Trump, unlike Vivek, had a distinct advantage back in 2016 with celebrity status and possessed name recognition for many decades before running for office.

Tim Scott pulled has an impressive “cash on hand” at about $20 million and polled at 8% in the latest UNH Poll. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has gained attention when he loaned his own campaign $10 million in the 2nd quarter and had $1.8 million in donations. Nikky Haley, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson were all at between 2 and 5% in every major poll over the last two weeks. With the Iowa Caucus less than six months away, things are shaping up for the GOP field but at this point Trump continues to be the one to beat.