It is a very true statement that you will have your best seasons when your best players are having their best seasons. And this is true regardless of format. When a Trea Turner lays a stinker you feel it in dynasty just as badly as you feel it in season long. The strategy that you deploy to alleviate the situation is very different under the format that you play in, but there are similarities. It also depends on the strategic plan that you deployed at either your draft or dynasty keeper list. And lastly, did you have a Plan B in mind before the season started. Let’s take a closer look.
Trea Turner is a lifetime .298 hitter that is hitting .236 in the current season at roughly the 1/3 mark. Using a very rough 3 times calculation, Trea Turner is on pace for 15 home runs and 24 stolen bases but only 45 RBI’s. He is however, on pace for roughly 90 runs scored. Of course, the problem is that Trea Turner was selected in the first round of the draft for so many owners this year. And in 2022, Trea Turner hit 21 home runs with 100 RBI’s and 27 stolen bases. He also scored 101 runs in 2022. Therein lies part of the problem in assessing Trea Turner’s true worth. The most immediate season in the rear view mirror is a .300-21-100-100-27 season. It is his all-time high level mark. And if you listened to enough mock drafts this winter and early spring, there was a tap on the brakes being deployed.
If you had Trea Turner in a dynasty league, you were well aware that he would turn 30 years old during the current season on June 30th. In his age 22 and 23 seasons, Trea had eclipsed 40 stolen bases in consecutive seasons. At this point, Trea’s speed has settled into a comfortable total in the 20’s. Heck, even with his batting average down to .236 but stolen base attempts way up, his 24 projected stolen bases seems right in line. I own Trea Turner in one of my dynasty leagues, and my roster has Anthony Volpe, C.J. Abrams and Ezequiel Tovar waiting in the wings. Planned obsolescence is a fact of life in dynasty leagues. But I mentioned mock drafts this winter and spring, and you saw a cautionary tale from where Turner was being taken.
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Trea Turner, shortstop with the Washington Nationals on base during
a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. on June 30, 2021. All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA
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Chuck, what do we do? The first thing to remember is that teams will win their leagues this year with Trea Turner as their starting SS. And in dynasty and non-dynasty formats to boot. Those owners in dynasty who have hedged their bets by investing in Elly de La Cruz, Anthony Volpe, Abrams and others are ahead of the game. But in a non-dynasty league what would be a smart replacement for Turner mid-season? As Anthony Volpe has slipped back below hitting .200 that is a high-risk, high reward move. Brice Turang has 7 stolen bases and while batting lower than Turner he comes considerably cheaper. So does Zach Neto. Ezequiel Tovar is hitting .244 the highest point his batting average has been at all year and he is at 3 home runs and 2 stolen bases. And Coors Field puts a considerable floor underneath anybody’s numbers. ESPN ownership of Javier Baez is down to 15.6%, a multi-year low.
The move you don’t want to make is to panic right now. 15 home runs and 24 stolen bases out of your starting SS is not a death sentence. If you had drafted Anthony Volpe in the 9th round and you were told on Draft Day that Volpe would produce 15 home runs and steal 24 bases you would gladly take it. So what has changed? That is right. Nothing. You win your league through patience and being a steady hand. That hasn’t changed. I still say Trea Turner is going to have a strong 2nd half. Do you believe me? I’ll never tell.