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Republicans began the year with a slim 4-seat majority and a fractured caucus. Significant ideological differences exist within the party between legacy establishment members who seek to maintain the status quo and self-declared "MAGA" Republicans who seek significant change on issues such as reigning in spending, limiting U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, and controlling the Southern border. In January, Kevin McCarthy was elected Speaker of the House after 15 votes, only after providing assurances on how the House would be managed – most notably on the appropriations process and using the debt ceiling as leverage, and to hold single line votes on Conservative priorities like a balanced budget, congressional term limits and a border security plan. Additionally, McCarthy agreed to a change in House rules that would permit just a single member of Congress to initiate a vote to vacate the Speaker.
On October 3, that new rule was put into effect after months of failed promises made to the caucus and after McCarthy passed a second C.R. that required significant support from Democrats because of how unpopular the funding plans were with conservatives, most notably on continued unaudited funding of Ukraine and little or no funding for the American Southern border. For that, Speaker McCarthy was voted out of his position.
Selecting a new speaker necessitates a majority vote from present members, and the inability to secure this majority has plunged the House into a state of crisis. Aside from a failure to conduct House business, the political implications of this self-destruction may have damaging effects in 2024 when the Republicans seek to maintain control of the House while regaining the Senate and the White House.
Democrats and the media have seized the opportunity to point out how inept and feckless the Republicans appear, with increasing calls from the Democrats for moderate Republicans to work with the Democrats to either elect Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) as Speaker or to form a coalition government. Polls suggest that any move by a majority Republican House to negotiate with Democrats to govern the body would have disastrous effects on elections in 2024.
The crisis was nearing an end last week when Jim Jordan (R-OH) seemed to have enough Republican votes to take the Speaker position. Congressman Jordan is known as one of the more conservative members of Congress and has been outspoken on issues such as reducing spending, limiting or auditing aid sent to Ukraine, funding border security, and the weaponization of Justice by the Biden Administration. Jordan is a very popular member amongst Trump voters.
In a surprise twist, 15 members ultimately voted against Congressman Jordan, leaving the House without leadership again. Among them were local members Lalota (R-NY) and Garbarino (R-NY). Both Lalota and Garbarino's statements suggested that they want to "curb federal spending without a government shutdown," they would only support a speaker candidate that prioritized "SALT cap relief, 9/11 healthcare funding… and flood insurance legislation." Neither member offered an idea of how to curb federal spending without a government shutdown. It is a widely held view amongst conservatives that the debt limit and the risk of a shutdown without passing a C.R. is the only way to bring Democrats to the table on spending.
Late in the week, rumors began to circulate that Kevin McCarthy himself had been working behind the scenes, despite his public support of Jordan, to stymie Jordan's vote with a plan to ultimately take back the Speaker's gavel with the support of some moderate Democrats. Due to Kevin's strong ties to CLF (Congressional Leadership Fund) funding and that entity's prior support of members Lalota and Garbarino, it is speculated that these members helped thwart Jordan as part of that plan.
The backlash against this turn of events has been intense. Many Republicans believe that Jordan would be the most effective agent of change in the Speaker's seat, and a coalition government formed with the support of Democrats would be the worst possible outcome for Republicans. Congressman Lalota has publicly stated that he has received death threats because he voted against Jordan.
On Tuesday at 4:45 pm, Emmer's decision to withdraw from the race added even more chaos to the situation, as he had been the leading candidate for Speaker of the House at this time of this story. Republicans are desperate to put this embarrassing saga behind them and return to the people's business with as little political damage done as possible.