Democrat Red to Blue List Targets Three New York Seats

National Democrats have created a hit list for Congressional seats they have targeted in November, and three New York Republicans are on it. GOP wins in the state helped flip the House in 2022, and the Democrats are looking to take it back.

The “Red to Blue” list released by the Democrat’s Congressional Campaign Committee zeros in on the 3rd District Seat vacated by George Santos. Early voting has already started in the race, which pits former Congressman Tom Suozzi against Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pillip. After the special election concludes on February 13, the winner will face reelection in November, along with the other two GOP Reps on the Red to Blue list: Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro.

The 3rd District race features a Democrat stalwart against a relative newcomer in a battle that has garnered national attention partly because it involves the seat of the scandalous George Santos, who is facing corruption charges, and since it is seen as a bellwether for the November election when all House seats are up for grabs, along with 34 Senate seats and the presidency.

Suozzi previously served six years as a congressman, giving up the seat in 2022 for an ill-fated run for governor in the year that saw Kathy Hochul ascend from lieutenant governor after her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo, resigned amidst a sexual abuse scandal. Suozzi had tried once before for the state’s highest office in 2006, losing in a Democrat primary to Eliot Spitzer, who also left Albany under the cloud of a sex scandal. Suozzi, whose father was a state Supreme Court judge and mayor of Glen Cove, also served as the city’s mayor and Nassau County executive.

Tom Suozzi Photos courtesy of the candidates

Pilip, an Ethiopian who immigrated to Israel when she was 12, is in her second term as a legislator. She served in the Israel Defense Force's Paratroopers Brigade as a gunsmith and studied at the University of Haifa, where she earned a bachelor's degree in occupational therapy. She also holds a master's degree in diplomacy and security from Tel Aviv University. Having legally immigrated to the U.S. in 2005, Pilip is making hay over her opponent’s support of the sanctuary policies of the Democrats, an issue that is expected to take center stage in the other elections this year as the illegal immigration crisis plays out.

Mazi Pilip Photos courtesy of the candidates

Representing the Hudson Valley in the 17th District, Congressman Lawler came in on the Red Wave generated by Congressman Lee Zeldin’s strong showing against Hochul in 2022. He was one of four Republicans to flip Democrat seats in New York, enabling the GOP to take control of the House and drive Nancy Pelosi from the speakership. His opposition is lining up behind former Rep. Mondaire Jones, the one-term incumbent Lawler beat the last time around.

Democrat Josh Ryan is also itching for a rematch against Rep. Molinaro, who beat him in 2022 for the 19th District seat, which stretches from Ithaca to the Massachusetts border. Both Jones and Ryan are expected to run in primaries to advance to November, while the GOP incumbents are looking for a clear path to the general election.

On Long Island, Republican Reps Andrew Garbarino in the 1st, Nick LaLota in the 2nd, and the 4th District’s Anthony D’Esposito have dodged the Democrat Red to Blue crosshairs for now. The three incumbents, who were also part of the wave that flipped the House, are building substantial war chests to fend off their November challengers.

Marc Molinaro Photos courtesy of the candidates

With the GOP nursing a slim seven-seat majority over their rivals and 29 reps not seeking reelection, every seat is eyed as one that could change the destiny of Congress. As former President Donald Trump vies to take back the Oval Office from Joe Biden, the top of the ticket will surely affect the down-ballot races, including the Senate, which is currently in the hands of the Democrats with a one-vote plurality. There are 34 Senate seats up in 2024–including a special election in Nebraska—of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.