New York State has been losing population steadily since the COVID pandemic. NY’s population dropped by roughly 630,000 between July 2020 and July 2023.
In just 2022, 101,984 people left NY – the largest population loss of any state in the nation in that year.
Families and single people don’t love their hometowns any less. They don’t like their friends less. So, why are they leaving in such high numbers and at a faster rate than ever before?
Four respected polls were recently released giving some insight into just why so many New Yorkers are renting that U-Haul and getting out of dodge. South Shore Press looked at what the Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI), Marist Polls, Pew Charitable Trust, and Citizens Budget Committee (CBC) ferreted out in their polls.
New Yorkers were very clear about why they were leaving – the high cost of living, the high cost of housing, exorbitant childcare costs, low-performing schools, and for many, high crime and quality of public services.
Post-COVID, when so many workers can work from anywhere, the connection to NY weakened since they didn’t have to report to the office at all or as much. This drove those who could to look for a more affordable and potentially safer place to live to leave.
New York City is especially suffering from population and perception problems. CBC surveys show that that only 30 percent of New Yorkers think the quality of life in the city is good and only 50 percent plan on staying in the city in the next four years.
CBC President Andrew Rein said. "New Yorkers' responses crystalize the stark reality that they rate the quality of life and quality of City services as not good," he added.
A Marist poll showed about 7 million people plan to leave NY - with 46% of those planning to leave Republicans and 29% Democrats.
A recent analysis of the last census data done by Pew Charitable Trust’s Fiscal 50 program confirmed a continued decline in the NY population.
“In 2023, eight states lost residents and New York was one of them. What you can quickly see here is that 2023 was the eighth straight year of population decline in New York. In each of those years, New York had more births than deaths," said Joanna Biernacka-Lievestro from Pew.
FPI’s analysis revealed broad features of why people are moving out of NY. “The State’s pattern of out-migration is primarily a result of an affordability crisis in the state, particularly for families with young children.”
The most up-to-date data shows that it is not the wealthiest New Yorkers who are leaving, but instead, the working and middle class who face the affordability crises.
The FPI report shows that households with young children are more than 40% more likely to leave the state —and twice as likely to move out of New York City —as households without young children.
90% of New York’s population loss is driven by NYC, the most expensive part of the state. Black New Yorkers are leaving at more than 50% the rate of white New Yorkers, while Hispanic New Yorkers have rates 38% higher. Young adults are twice as likely to move out.
FPI says, “New York’s high, persistent population loss and out-migration pose a serious challenge to the State’s long-run economic prospects.” “Recent trends in out-migration represent a failure to provide New Yorkers with the financial stability necessary to remain in the State as they build careers and families.”
What legislators in NYC and towns and cities across the state intend to do to address the population crises and reverse the trends is unclear.