One of the oldest sayings in sports betting is that when it comes to championship games, don't take the points because you won't need them. Through the first three games of the NBA Finals, that advice has proven to be remarkably accurate.
Game 1 opened with the New York Knicks as 4.5-point underdogs against the San Antonio Spurs. Rather than simply covering the spread, the Knicks won outright, taking a convincing 105-95 victory and immediately putting the series on notice.
Oddsmakers and bettors weren't discouraged. Heading into Game 2, the public was even more convinced that Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs would respond. The line moved even further in San Antonio's favor, with New York catching 6.5 points. Once again, however, the Knicks ignored the script and won outright, extending their playoff winning streak and stunning bettors who backed the Spurs.
That set the stage for Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. Riding a 13-game winning streak and undefeated throughout the postseason, the Knicks were finally installed as favorites. Playing at the world's most famous arena, New York entered as a 2-point favorite. This time, though, the Spurs flipped the script and earned an outright victory of their own, handing the Knicks their first postseason loss and reminding everyone why they were considered title contenders in the first place.
The result means one thing for bettors: through three games, the underdog has not only covered every spread but has won every game outright.
So what does that mean moving forward?
Game 4 opened with the Knicks listed as slight 1.5-point favorites shortly after Game 3 concluded. Based purely on what we've seen so far, some bettors will be tempted to continue backing the underdog and taking the points. After all, the trend has been impossible to ignore.
Looking ahead, however, oddsmakers are already projecting San Antonio as a much larger favorite when the series shifts back to Texas for a potential Game 5 on Saturday night.
Whether the underdog trend continues remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: this has been a highly competitive Finals. Every game has felt tight, and neither team has been able to establish complete control of the series.
While many bettors have profited by simply playing the moneyline underdogs, this feels like the type of matchup where every point matters. If you're backing one of these teams moving forward, getting as many points as possible may be the smartest strategy of all.