Since STATCAST data became widely available in 2015 and beyond, the science of scouting has been revolutionized. Exit velocities are used to assess top hitters as well as to assess pitchers as well. And young shortstop Elly de la Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds is putting up batted ball data that is a cut above what just about every prospect has done in the last 8 years. Make no mistake, this analysis is in its infancy. But it is clearly having an outsized impact. And for every de la Cruz that tantalizes with potential, there is a Jo Adell who immensely disappoints.
I started playing fantasy baseball in 1989 and there was a lot in common amongst Eric Anthony, Greg Vaughn, Earl Cunningham and other sluggers. Namely they had wild numbers of strikeouts and they all chased pitches outside of the strike zone. And a terrific analyst once employed by STATS, Inc. revolutionized the industry with his analysis of controlling the strike zone and his name was Jon Sickels. This analysis was also closely similar to the work of Bill James and was popularized in the book “Moneyball” and the strategies employed by Billy Beane of the Oakland A’s. And to sum it up neatly, with no timer or game clock, baseball was the lone timeless sport which was decided by a team not expiring its 27 outs without establishing the lead. If you could draw a walk, your team always had a chance since a walk delayed the accumulation of 27 outs.
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And so we have another group of data to help guide us in our scouting adventures. It is less important that certain batters chase pitches out of the strike zone but they do so at reasonable rates of expectancy. A hitter who strikes out in 40% of his at bats is going to have a hard time hitting for a good batting average while striking out that much. And it won’t matter how hard he hits the ball. But a strikeout rate in the high 20’s might be a measure an owner can live with. As we look at Elly de la Cruz what we do see is a player lowering his chase rates and subsequently increasing his walk rates. It is that concentration on improvement and his good reception to coaching which are the things to look for. The STATCAST exit velocities and the sprint speeds are things to drool over. Elly consistently hits balls with exit velocities in excess of 115mph. His sprint speed stands at an index which makes him amongst the fastest measured runners playing the sport. There is a lot to dream on here. And the dream began with a major league call up on Monday, June 5h. There is still 2/3 of the baseball season to be played. And all over the baseball diamond, the Cincinnati Reds have some very impactful prospects from Christian Encarnacion-Strand to pitcher Andrew Abbott.
Prior to Elly de la Cruz the Pittsburgh Pirates were thrilling the baseball world with shortstop O’Neill Cruz. Another guy with off the charts power, ridiculous speed. A world class throwing arm and perhaps with just a tad less refinement than Elly has shown. His season has been interrupted by a broken ankle but he will back bashing soon enough. The exit velocities are off of the charts.
Baseball’s draft has been moved into July from previously being held in June. The consensus Top 3 prospects are all college players and they are all expected to need only one year in the minors. Louisiana State outfielder Dylan Crews is dripping tools and his makeup is said to be off the charts. Teammate Paul Skenes is projected to go 2nd overall. Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford has been excellent all season. All 3 are already taken in my Dynasty League.